Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x67d5…d81e world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$5
other 16% $0
crypto 6% +$1
sports 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 31% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 31% 8% -8.6%
all 31 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 10% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 10% -8.3%
10% -12.8% 10% -17.1%
15% -21.2% 6% -25.1%
20% -28.9% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.89 per $1 lost it wins $5.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage464d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $74 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $68 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $71 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $29 +$7 +23%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $39 −$1 -4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $1 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $1 +$1 +124%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Apr 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $16 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +52%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $15 $0 -0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 28 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $1 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $11 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $25 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 9h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $27 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $44 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $5 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $31 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $8 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $44 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.34 · official $34.34 (match) · 102 history records