Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x67d3…b524 sports 488 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,005 (+12%) realized +$4,638 · open −$633
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%221W / 234L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$451est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,009
7 days+$3,151
14 days+$5,612
30 days+$4,435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$3,684
other 23% −$91
crypto 2% −$34
economics 1% −$16
culture 0% −$152
world 0% +$21
politics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +19.0% +7.7% 56% 54% +23.4%
≤30d 142 +22.2% +10.6% 48% 46% +13.1%
≤90d 455 +7.1% -3.1% 49% 48% +3.4%
all 455 +7.1% -3.1% 49% 48% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 48% +3.4%
10% -12.4% 47% -6.5%
15% -20.9% 45% -15.6%
20% -28.6% 42% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$47 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$3,106
Realized+$4,638
Unrealized−$633
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses221 / 234
Est. fees paid−$451
Open positions31
Markets (closed)455 / 488
History coverage72d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $514 $399 −$116 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $213 +$13 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $200 $167 −$33 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $161 −$39 (-19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $100 $153 +$53 (+53%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53¢ 52¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 20¢ $150 $64 −$86 (-57%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $59 −$41 (-41%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $35 −$65 (-65%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $21 −$79 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$213 +105%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$116 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$146 +143%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$174 +86%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$84 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $355 +$373 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$401 +391%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $203 +$193 +95%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $101 +$69 +68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $103 −$25 -25%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $51 −$26 -51%
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $51 −$20 -40%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $305 +$430 +141%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $710 −$700 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $305 +$385 +126%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$75 +74%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $306 +$762 +249%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $190 +$314 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $203 +$257 +126%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $101 +$89 +88%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $192 −$189 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$86 +84%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 13 $101 +$65 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$73 +72%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$76 +75%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $101 +$73 +72%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$44 -43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $202 +$216 +107%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $105 +$56 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $107 −$100 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 34¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $20 5h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $26 5h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $26 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $76 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $416 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $101 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $268 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $247 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 56¢ $152 13h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $185 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $377 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $728 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $355 15h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $51 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 62¢ $51 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $101 17h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 61¢ $152 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $503 32h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $396 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $102 34h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $171 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,106.23 · official $3,108.96 (match) · 1067 history records