Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67d3…d1e4 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
culture 17% $0
politics 17% +$2
other 12% $0
sports 6% −$3
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -7.8% -16.5% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 16 -1.9% -11.3% 19% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 16 -1.9% -11.3% 19% 6% -9.4%
all 47 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage280d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $40 −$3 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $33 +$4 +11%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $37 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $153 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 09 $43 −$3 -6%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 09 $14 +$1 +10%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 04 $20 $0 -1%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $4 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 01 $2 $0 +3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 30 $22 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $8 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 28 $8 $0 -5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 23? Sep 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 21 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $15 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $29 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $7 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $26 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $20 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $11 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $40 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $17 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.72 · official $35.72 (match) · 159 history records