Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67d3…743e politics 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$4
sports 22% −$2
other 20% −$2
crypto 4% $0
culture 2% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 54 -8.2% -16.9% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage238d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $106 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $221 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $217 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 25 $107 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 25 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 24 $1 $0 -9%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $217 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $109 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 19 $2 $0 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $106 $0 +0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $107 $0 -0%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $105 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $109 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $110 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $1 $0 -50%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $112 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 31 $214 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $109 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 25 $1 $0 -56%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $113 $0 -0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $1 $0 -20%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $113 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 01 $4 $0 -11%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 27 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $112 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $114 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $113 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $114 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Nov 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $3 $0 -14%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $108 34h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $108 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $104 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 25d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 110d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 129d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 134d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 143d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $107 147d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $106 148d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 149d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? SELL Yes $0 150d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 150d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 151d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 152d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C BUY No 100¢ $107 153d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 153d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 153d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $107 154d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $109 155d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $109 156d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? SELL Yes $1 156d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 158d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? SELL Yes $1 158d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $103 158d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $103 159d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $107 160d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $107 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.09 · official $106.09 (match) · 228 history records