Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67d0…3570 crypto 1189 markets active 2d ago coverage 40d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$111 (-3%) realized −$110 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%707W / 476L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$35
14 days−$157
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$63
sports 23% −$93
other 2% −$3
world 2% −$8
finance 0% $0
politics 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -10.2% -18.7% 59% 52% -17.5%
≤30d 1076 -3.0% -12.2% 62% 41% -12.8%
≤90d 1183 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 41% -13.0%
all 1183 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 41% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 41% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 30% -21.4%
15% -28.6% 22% -29.0%
20% -35.6% 17% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses707 / 476
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1183 / 1189
History coverage40d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 40¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 $0 -29%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $3 −$1 -46%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $3 −$1 -48%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 12 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +185%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +74%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +74%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 9¢ $1 2d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $2 2d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 36¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $2 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Kiwoom Heroes 29¢ $2 4d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz SELL NC Dinos 24¢ $1 4d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY NC Dinos 44¢ $3 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 52¢ $3 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Golden State Valkyries 87¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $3 4d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $3 5d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $3 5d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $3 5d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $3 5d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers SELL Winnipeg Blue Bombers 12¢ $1 5d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Winnipeg Blue Bombers 27¢ $2 5d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 77¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 53¢ $3 6d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) SELL Spurs 91¢ $7 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $1 6d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $3 6d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $1 6d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Spurs 63¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.49 · official $20.41 (match) · 2302 history records