Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67d0…cd9a other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$689 (-7%) realized −$689 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate50%39W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$239
7 days−$218
14 days−$329
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$345
crypto 22% −$200
world 18% −$112
economics 2% +$1
politics 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.8% -12.9% 38% 38% -30.8%
≤30d 38 +6.9% -3.3% 32% 26% -21.8%
≤90d 55 +3.3% -6.5% 47% 20% -14.2%
all 78 -1.8% -11.2% 50% 18% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 18% -16.0%
10% -19.7% 15% -24.1%
15% -27.4% 13% -31.4%
20% -34.5% 13% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$37 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses39 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage167d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $238 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$26 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $41 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $86 −$76 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $45 +$125 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$15 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $29 +$119 +406%
Will Quantinuum not IPO before August 2026? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close May 29 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $12 +$111 +963%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $105 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $108 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 04 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 04 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $188 +$9 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $271 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $271 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $270 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $107 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records