Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
67 0x67cf…2371 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+10%) realized +$56 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$39
sports 20% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.4% -1.9% 43% 43% +3.5%
≤30d 7 +8.4% -1.9% 43% 43% +3.5%
≤90d 7 +8.4% -1.9% 43% 43% +3.5%
all 7 +8.4% -1.9% 43% 43% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 43% +3.5%
10% -11.3% 43% -6.4%
15% -19.8% 43% -15.5%
20% -27.7% 43% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$32 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $41 −$2 -5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 +$75 +153%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$28 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 1h
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 21h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.72 · official $416.92 (match) · 25 history records