trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 25% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 25% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 27 | +14.8% | +3.8% | 52% | 4% | -4.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.8% | 4% | -4.6% |
| 10% | -6.1% | 4% | -13.7% |
| 15% | -15.2% | 4% | -22.0% |
| 20% | -23.5% | 4% | -29.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $42 | $42 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $56 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 06 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 05 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 02 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $3 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Mar 27 | $55 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? | Mar 22 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 21? | Mar 22 | $55 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 21 | $55 | $0 | -0% |
| Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? | Mar 20 | $44 | +$2 | +4% |
| VCU vs. Richmond | Mar 03 | $8 | +$1 | +10% |
| Austin Peay vs. West Georgia | Feb 26 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February | Feb 26 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Stars vs. Blue Jackets | Feb 25 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 25? | Feb 25 | $11 | +$41 | +381% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Feb 25 | $10 | $0 | +1% |