Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67cd…5f96 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+5%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 25% +$1
sports 11% +$1
weather 8% +$42
crypto 6% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 27 +14.8% +3.8% 52% 4% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 4% -4.6%
10% -6.1% 4% -13.7%
15% -15.2% 4% -22.0%
20% -23.5% 4% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×9.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×27.96 per $1 lost it wins $27.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage490d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $103 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $3 $0 -5%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 27 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? Mar 22 $56 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 21? Mar 22 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $55 $0 -0%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Mar 20 $44 +$2 +4%
VCU vs. Richmond Mar 03 $8 +$1 +10%
Austin Peay vs. West Georgia Feb 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Feb 26 $3 $0 +2%
Stars vs. Blue Jackets Feb 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 25? Feb 25 $11 +$41 +381%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $46 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $5 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.65 · official $41.62 (match) · 91 history records