Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67cd…2f85 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 34L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,401per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$245
7 days+$245
14 days+$245
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$25
economics 24% −$360
politics 16% +$80
world 12% +$331
crypto 4% +$239
sports 4% −$53
finance 4% −$6
tech 0% −$240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 25% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 14% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.1%
all 49 -12.0% -20.4% 31% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 14% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 14% -18.2%
15% -35.0% 12% -26.1%
20% -41.4% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$5,264) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$23 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)49 / 56
History coverage615d
Avg bet$2,401
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $5,523 −$8 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $5,501 −$9 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5,555 −$6 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $5,100 +$268 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $5,301 −$8 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $5,300 −$6 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $5,001 −$7 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $5,299 +$21 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 25 $5,294 +$5 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $5,290 −$5 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 23 $5,264 +$21 +0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Mar 18 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 18 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 18 $5,233 −$5 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Mar 18 $5,222 +$32 +1%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $1 $0 -24%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $5,246 −$5 -0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 14 $2 +$1 +52%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $5,178 +$31 +1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $5,266 −$5 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 13 $5,200 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 11 $5,273 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 10 $5,258 +$32 +1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $5,264 −$5 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 05 $5,274 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 31 $3 +$2 +52%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Dec 28 $477 −$261 -55%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 27 $430 −$5 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 19? Dec 20 $248 +$252 +102%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 06 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Oct 28 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Aug 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Aug 03 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 21 $51 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 15 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $284 +$66 +23%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $135 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5,515 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5,523 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $5,493 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $5,501 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5,544 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5,555 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5,549 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5,555 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5,100 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $5,293 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $5,301 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5,294 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5,300 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $4,994 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5,001 25d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $5,299 56d
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,294 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $5,264 94d
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,222 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $5,222 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5,233 126d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY No 73¢ $2 126d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5,150 126d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5,180 126d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5,214 126d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5,222 126d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $5 126d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 126d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.02 · official $44.02 (match) · 250 history records