Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x67cb…0157 politics 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$21
other 42% −$18
sports 5% +$20
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 125 -2.2% -11.5% 6% 4% -9.6%
all 136 -2.1% -11.4% 10% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage115d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $263 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $272 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $225 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $893 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $248 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $281 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $273 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 21 $241 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $239 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $317 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $296 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 13 $329 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $636 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $277 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $257 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 06 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $331 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $411 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $551 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $235 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $289 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $276 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $277 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $336 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 2h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 13h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 13h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 24h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 29h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 6d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 10d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 10d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $54 11d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $54 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 14d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 20d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 20d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 21d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $229 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $229 23d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $272 24d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $272 25d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 25d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 26d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $265 26d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $265 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 378 history records