Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67c7…1fb7 crypto 41 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-12%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$28
sports 11% −$5
other 10% −$19
world 2% +$4
culture 2% −$3
weather 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -7.4% -16.2% 49% 29% -23.6%
≤30d 41 -7.4% -16.2% 49% 29% -23.6%
≤90d 41 -7.4% -16.2% 49% 29% -23.6%
all 41 -7.4% -16.2% 49% 29% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 29% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 27% -30.9%
15% -31.6% 22% -37.6%
20% -38.3% 15% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +64%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -14%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +51%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $3 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $1 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 49¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 87¢ $2 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 62¢ $1 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $1 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 83¢ $0 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 83¢ $0 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 83¢ $0 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 83¢ $0 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records