Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x67c5…cab7 sports 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$318 (+6%) realized +$319 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%130W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$389
7 days+$453
14 days+$453
30 days+$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$233
other 3% +$136
world 3% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 48% +2.5%
≤30d 33 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 48% +2.5%
≤90d 33 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 48% +2.5%
all 241 -0.5% -10.0% 54% 52% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 52% -5.3%
10% -18.6% 47% -14.4%
15% -26.5% 35% -22.6%
20% -33.7% 24% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$319
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses130 / 111
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage194d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $124 +$87 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $147 +$69 +47%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $142 +$132 +93%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $153 +$321 +210%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $154 −$151 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $72 +$92 +128%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 +$163 +227%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$56 -56%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $86 +$98 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $90 +$95 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $175 +$180 +103%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $152 +$177 +116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$11 -11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $132 −$130 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$60 +59%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$50 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$58 +57%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 −$14 -14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Santa deliver between 8,000,000,000 and 8,100,000,000 gifts for C Dec 16 $1 +$1 +102%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5 Dec 15 $100 −$100 -100%
AS Roma vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Dec 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $36 −$20 -55%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $10 +$2 +25%
FC Twente '65 vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $10 +$2 +25%
NAC Breda vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $10 +$3 +30%
West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Genoa CFC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $10 +$4 +43%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 14 $17 $0 -3%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $30 +$6 +21%
Brentford FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $40 −$3 -8%
Udinese Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $47 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $124 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 47¢ $215 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $72 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $75 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $142 36h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $153 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $154 36h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $163 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 3¢ $10 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $11 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $235 37h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $72 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $45 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $86 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $90 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.07 · official $99.07 (match) · 485 history records