Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67c4…6c28 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+4%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$2
sports 26% +$4
other 20% +$2
weather 5% $0
finance 5% $0
politics 4% +$3
tech 2% +$18
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.9%
all 37 +8.9% -1.5% 51% 11% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 11% -5.6%
10% -10.9% 5% -14.6%
15% -19.5% 3% -22.9%
20% -27.4% 3% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.6 per $1 lost it wins $10.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage485d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $30 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $11 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $28 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $10 −$1 -7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -28%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Mia Farrow win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? Jun 09 $3 $0 +13%
Will "English" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? Jun 07 $6 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross less than $20m opening weekend? Jun 03 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $32 +$2 +8%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? May 06 $10 +$3 +28%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $32 $0 +0%
Notre Dame vs. Clemson Mar 20 $6 +$1 +10%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March? Mar 20 $6 +$18 +270%
South Dakota vs. Oral Roberts Feb 26 $7 $0 +0%
Abilene Christian vs. Tarleton Feb 26 $7 $0 +0%
Islanders vs. Bruins Feb 26 $5 $0 +6%
Vermont vs. NJIT Feb 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Progressive Conservatives win the most seats in the next Onta Feb 26 $6 $0 +0%
BYU vs. Arizona State Feb 26 $7 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Knicks Feb 26 $11 $0 +2%
NC State vs. Syracuse Feb 25 $14 $0 +0%
Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $12 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $19 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $16 40h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $29 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $30 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $22 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $8 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $30 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $18 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $18 25d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 99¢ $1 184d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 357d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.68 · official $27.68 (match) · 105 history records