Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x67c4…f0a4 sports 170 markets active 10h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,887 (-17%) realized −$14,887 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%68W / 102L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$513per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$679est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,168
7 days−$2,633
14 days−$2,850
30 days−$3,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$15,042
world 1% +$103
finance 1% −$237
other 0% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -27.3% -34.3% 37% 37% -39.7%
≤30d 27 -21.3% -28.8% 41% 41% -36.9%
≤90d 100 -20.4% -28.0% 41% 40% -26.3%
all 170 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 39% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 39% -25.6%
10% -28.6% 37% -32.7%
15% -35.5% 36% -39.2%
20% -41.8% 34% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$700) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$484 vs −$472 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,887
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses68 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$679
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage165d
Avg bet$513
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (97 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $228 −$224 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,781 −$1,754 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $194 −$191 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $99 +$66 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $93 −$61 -66%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$70 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$3 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $11 +$8 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $979 −$969 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,828 −$800 -44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $778 −$320 -41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $983 +$972 +99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,012 +$1,022 +101%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$95 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $193 −$190 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$32 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $124 −$122 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $42 +$82 +194%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $206 −$203 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 28 $1,209 −$1,203 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $715 +$230 +32%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 28 $204 +$196 +96%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner May 28 $202 +$137 +68%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie May 28 $271 −$165 -61%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 28 $295 +$322 +109%
Counter-Strike: HereWeGoAgain vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se May 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas May 18 $13 +$17 +129%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 18 $636 +$341 +54%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $969 −$969 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $457 +$187 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $238 +$205 +86%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic - Map 1 Winner May 17 $146 +$103 +71%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 16 $219 −$214 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 15 $269 −$269 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 15 $264 +$225 +85%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner May 11 $1,728 −$1,694 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $2,047 −$2,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 11 $205 −$200 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 11 $913 −$900 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nemiga (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri May 11 $760 +$872 +115%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America S May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 G May 10 $127 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St May 10 $1,525 +$1,824 +120%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner May 10 $1,249 +$1,098 +88%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $499 +$750 +150%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 10 $399 −$394 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 41¢ $228 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $1,781 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 46¢ $194 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $165 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $29 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $99 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $93 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $169 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $22 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $100 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $99 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $19 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $136 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $72 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $43 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $709 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 42¢ $814 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 55¢ $424 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 55¢ $214 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 55¢ $108 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 55¢ $244 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 18¢ $410 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 67¢ $332 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $82 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records