Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

67 0x67c3…a272 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$221 (-1%) realized −$217 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR86%break-even

Win rate86%18W / 3L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$801per market

Trades / day22.8pace

Fees−$150est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,863now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +86%

net ROI/market (all)+4.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+15.5%	+4.5%	86%	86%	-0.3%
≤30d	21	+15.5%	+4.5%	86%	86%	-0.3%
≤90d	21	+15.5%	+4.5%	86%	86%	-0.3%
all	21	+15.5%	+4.5%	86%	86%	-0.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.8 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+4.5%	86%	-0.3%
10%	-5.5%	48%	-9.9%
15% ← realistic here	-14.6%	38%	-18.6%
20%	-23.0%	10%	-26.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,010) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +20% → late +11% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$247 vs −$914 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$1,863

Realized−$217

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses18 / 3

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Est. fees paid−$150

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage2d

Avg bet$801

Trades / day22.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Under	83¢	99¢	$1,000	$1,197	+$197 (+20%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Under	75¢	100¢	$500	$663	+$163 (+33%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Over	42¢	1¢	$170	$3	−$167 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 28	$1,010	+$461	+46%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$1,008	+$362	+36%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 28	$1,008	+$344	+34%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Jun 28	$1,013	+$803	+79%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 27	$1,005	+$199	+20%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 27	$1,147	+$134	+12%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$505	+$92	+18%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Jun 27	$463	+$299	+64%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5	Jun 27	$1,005	−$1,000	-100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score	Jun 27	$101	+$13	+13%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5	Jun 27	$995	−$990	-100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 26	$1,994	+$286	+14%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 26	$1,120	−$751	-67%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Jun 26	$1,005	+$493	+49%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Jun 26	$10	+$5	+47%
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 26	$1,030	+$368	+36%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$303	+$119	+40%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 26	$518	+$81	+16%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$287	+$56	+20%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$502	+$81	+16%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$705	+$240	+34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	42¢	$173	1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	83¢	$503	1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	83¢	$503	1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	75¢	$504	1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$1,352	2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	73¢	$1,008	3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$1,816	3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	74¢	$1,008	3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	68¢	$1,010	4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	55¢	$1,013	4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$1,204	4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$1,282	4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	77¢	$597	5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	89¢	$294	5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	64¢	$505	5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	89¢	$73	5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	89¢	$78	5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	90¢	$502	5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	88¢	$201	5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$761	5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	83¢	$1,005	10h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	60¢	$463	10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	88¢	$502	22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	82¢	$503	22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	83¢	$114	23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	78¢	$390	23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	73¢	$101	23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	74¢	$605	23h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$2,280	30h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	96¢	$1	31h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,862.74 · official $1,862.74 (match) · 59 history records