Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67bc…21a0 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-19%) realized −$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$4
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 40% -26.6%
≤30d 10 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 40% -26.6%
≤90d 10 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 40% -26.6%
all 10 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 40% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 40% -26.6%
10% -33.8% 40% -33.7%
15% -40.2% 40% -40.1%
20% -46.0% 30% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.32 · official $4.32 (match) · 30 history records