Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x67bc…d54e
crypto · 72 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
−$29,125 -104%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$190 · open −$29,933
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$104,913
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$29,933
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 51
Open positions34
Markets (closed)73 / 72
History coverage16d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day219.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 34 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$77
14 days−$33
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 50¢ 84¢ $42,500 $71,825 +$29,325 (+69%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $42,500 $13,175 −$29,325 (-69%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $5,865 $5,845 −$20 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $4,304 $4,435 +$131 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,934 $1,983 +$49 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,920 $1,975 +$55 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,900 $1,934 +$35 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,593 $1,641 +$48 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $975 $994 +$19 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? No 91¢ 97¢ $428 $457 +$29 (+7%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $46 +$30 (+181%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $45 +$28 (+165%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $45 +$29 (+181%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $45 +$27 (+158%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $45 +$29 (+181%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $44 +$29 (+179%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $43 +$28 (+181%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $43 +$28 (+189%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $41 +$31 (+310%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $40 +$30 (+310%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $36 +$27 (+297%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $31 +$22 (+240%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $31 +$22 (+240%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,266 $31 −$1,235 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $0 +$22 —%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $0 +$333 —%
Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? Jun 12 $0 −$43 -588290%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $0 −$191 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $57 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $116 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 03 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 03 $109 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $183 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $158 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 03 $61 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $303 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 03 $87 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 03 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 02 $36 −$17 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $183 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $184 −$12 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 02 $170 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $129 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $174 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $149 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $121 +$7 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $67 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 01 $183 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 01 $145 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 01 $198 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 01 $114 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 01 $121 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 01 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 29 $327 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 29 $116 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 29 $201 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 29 $297 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 29 $162 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 29 $298 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 29 $117 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 29 $144 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 29 $235 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 29 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 29 $265 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 29 $314 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 29 $207 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 29 $191 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 29 $233 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 29 $341 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 35% +$114
other 31% −$829
world 29% −$29,194
finance 5% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1,954 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.0% -27.6% 40% 40% +8.7%
≤30d 73 +7.9% -2.3% 30% 10% -7.9%
≤90d 73 +7.9% -2.3% 30% 10% -7.9%
all 73 +7.9% -2.3% 30% 10% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover219.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 10% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 8% -16.8%
15% -20.2% 7% -24.8%
20% -28.0% 7% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104,913.02 · official $104,913.02 (match) · 3500 history records