Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x67bc…3503
sports · 24 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$19
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)6 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 18 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 67¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Katie Volynets 65¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 75¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Taro Daniel 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 80¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Martin Landaluce 62¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 54¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 89¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% −$6
other 28% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 75¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 65¢ $1 1h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 62¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 1h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 94¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $1 15h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $1 15h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $1 15h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $1 16h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $1 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $1 16h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 16h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -42.1% -47.6% 33% 33% -68.6%
≤30d 6 -42.1% -47.6% 33% 33% -68.6%
≤90d 6 -42.1% -47.6% 33% 33% -68.6%
all 6 -42.1% -47.6% 33% 33% -68.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.6% 33% -68.6%
10% -52.6% 33% -71.6%
15% -57.2% 17% -74.3%
20% -61.4% 17% -76.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.14 · official $19.14 (match) · 30 history records