Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67ba…5903 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%28W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$6
other 25% −$5
politics 16% −$3
crypto 9% −$2
economics 7% $0
culture 7% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.2% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 42 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses28 / 228
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage170d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $23 $0 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $18 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 30 $415 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $157 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $84 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $24 $0 -1%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $18 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $138 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $191 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 24 $23 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $153 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $72 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 21 $22 $0 +1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 21 $170 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $148 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $23 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $23 12d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $23 12d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $18 20d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 33d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $20 79d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $20 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 80d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $27 80d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $27 80d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $19 80d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $12 80d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $7 80d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $16 80d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $17 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $19 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $19 81d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $15 81d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $15 81d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $18 81d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $18 81d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $20 81d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $20 81d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $24 81d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $19 81d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $5 81d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $18 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.32 · official $29.32 (match) · 971 history records