Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67b7…f170 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$36
other 40% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 4 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 50% -1.8%
≤90d 4 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 50% -1.8%
all 4 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 50% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 50% -1.8%
10% -15.4% 50% -11.2%
15% -23.5% 50% -19.8%
20% -31.0% 50% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$43 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $99 +$50 +50%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 26 $87 −$85 -98%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $114 +$71 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $115 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 13m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 14m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $148 15m
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 1¢ $2 17m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $99 48m
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 47¢ $87 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $185 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $114 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $114 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $115 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.67 · official $76.67 (match) · 10 history records