Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
67 0x67b7…5b90 politics 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$446 (+23%) realized +$441 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% +$300
other 29% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.4% +15.3% 100% 100% +15.3%
≤30d 3 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +14.1%
≤90d 3 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +14.1%
all 3 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 100% +14.1%
10% +2.9% 100% +3.2%
15% -7.0% 0% -6.8%
20% -16.1% 0% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$441
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage21d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $213 $216 +$3 (+1%)
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $696 +$191 +27%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $561 +$150 +27%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $454 +$105 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 35¢ $218 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $356 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $34 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $6 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $89 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $89 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $94 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 99¢ $711 7d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $296 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $177 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $1 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $7 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $7 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $7 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $7 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $7 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $7 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $6 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $7 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $23 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.89 · official $246.89 (match) · 39 history records