Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67b6…c3e7 other 127 markets active 5d ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$19
politics 28% −$16
sports 10% +$17
crypto 6% −$2
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 88 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 126 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage125d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $195 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $161 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $156 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $144 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $147 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $188 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $189 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $196 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $202 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $592 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $314 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $292 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $303 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $270 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $269 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $313 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $314 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 10 $303 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $260 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $280 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $19 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 19d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 20d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $162 22d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $162 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $161 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $161 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $167 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $167 24d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $187 25d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $187 25d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $156 26d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $156 27d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $144 27d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $144 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $147 28d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 29d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $204 29d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 29d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 31d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $182 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.99 · official $17.99 (match) · 369 history records