Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67b4…19ac sports 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43,501 (-27%) realized −$43,499 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%85W / 99L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$857per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$341est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$42,983
other 1% −$523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 17% -8.1%
≤30d 18 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 17% -8.1%
≤90d 115 -33.1% -39.5% 30% 27% -43.4%
all 184 -4.9% -13.9% 46% 44% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 44% -34.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -40.5%
15% -29.7% 39% -46.3%
20% -36.6% 33% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$1,026) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$613 vs −$966 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$43,499
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses85 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$341
Open positions2
Markets (closed)184 / 186
History coverage106d
Avg bet$857
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 35¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Damir Dzumhur 37¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $7 +$5 +75%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $7 −$1 -21%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $6 +$3 +42%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $0 $0 -26%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 02 $7,523 −$7,378 -98%
Mauthausen: Roman Safiullin vs Titouan Droguet Apr 30 $648 −$640 -99%
La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Alina Charaeva Apr 30 $508 −$500 -98%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $714 −$700 -98%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Katie Boulter vs Gabriela Ruse Apr 07 $300 −$300 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Polina Kudermetova vs Oleksandra Oliynykov Apr 01 $2,021 −$2,021 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Jesper de Jong vs Yannick Hanfmann Apr 01 $997 −$997 -100%
Sao Leopoldo: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Apr 01 $8,918 −$8,918 -100%
Bucaramanga: Peter Bertran vs Matias Soto Mar 30 $7,608 −$7,608 -100%
Morelia: Borna Gojo vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Mar 30 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Bucharest Open, Qualification: George Loffhagen vs Jurij Rodionov Mar 30 $2,070 −$2,070 -100%
Miami Open: Martin Landaluce vs Jiri Lehecka Mar 30 $3,001 −$3,001 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Aliona Bolsova vs Ekaterine Mar 29 $1,667 +$1,938 +116%
Dubrovnik: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Veronika Erjavec Mar 25 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Mar 25 $1,513 +$318 +21%
Naples: Matteo Martineau vs Michele Ribecai Mar 25 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Dubrovnik: Tamara Zidansek vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Mar 25 $3,000 −$1,705 -57%
Naples: Sumit Nagal vs Federico Bondioli Mar 25 $3,174 +$2,751 +87%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Mar 25 $64 −$5 -8%
Golden Knights vs. Jets Mar 25 $440 −$440 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5) Mar 25 $600 −$600 -100%
Sharks vs. Predators Mar 25 $315 −$315 -100%
Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik Sinner Mar 25 $503 −$503 -100%
Alicante: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Vilius Gaubas Mar 25 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Ducks vs. Canucks Mar 25 $312 −$312 -100%
Miami Open: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Muchova Mar 25 $2,402 +$958 +40%
Alicante: Samuele Pieri vs Jesper de Jong Mar 24 $5,674 +$4,818 +85%
Split: Adrian Oetzbach vs Filippo Romano Mar 24 $500 +$334 +67%
Spread: Warriors (-2.5) Mar 24 $1,008 +$1,092 +108%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $1,008 +$1,092 +108%
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensik Mar 24 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Morelia: Coleman Wong vs Nicolas Mejia Mar 24 $3,021 −$3,021 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 52¢ $4 47m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 52¢ $4 47m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 57¢ $4 47m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 60¢ $4 47m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 35¢ $2 1h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 37¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 67¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 17¢ $1 1h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery SELL Calvin Hemery 22¢ $5 2h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 23¢ $1 2h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 21¢ $1 2h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 26¢ $2 2h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 24¢ $1 2h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 38¢ $2 2h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 70¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 52¢ $2 3h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 42¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 38¢ $1 4h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 63¢ $2 4h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 40¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 37¢ $1 4h
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 96¢ $3 4h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 41¢ $1 5h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $2 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 77¢ $2 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 91¢ $3 16h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 36¢ $1 20h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 35¢ $1 20h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.95 · official $1.95 (match) · 1062 history records