Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67af…61ee sports 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3271 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,624 (-35%) realized −$8,560 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%123W / 77L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day3271.0pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2,717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$172
sports 48% +$1,618
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3271 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 42% -2.1%
≤30d 200 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 42% -2.1%
≤90d 200 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 42% -2.1%
all 200 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 42% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3271.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 42% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 29% -11.5%
15% -25.6% 24% -20.0%
20% -32.9% 18% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$51 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,717
Realized−$8,560
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses123 / 77
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions56
Markets (closed)200 / 235
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$106
Trades / day3271.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 57¢ $728 $750 +$22 (+3%)
Stefan Posch: 1+ goals No 91¢ 92¢ $182 $184 +$2 (+1%)
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 60¢ $87 $167 +$80 (+92%)
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals No 75¢ 78¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+4%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Over 89¢ 88¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ 54¢ $74 $80 +$5 (+7%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Under 49¢ 48¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals No 68¢ 70¢ $65 $67 +$2 (+3%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+10%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. KT Wiz Lotte Giants 50¢ 52¢ $58 $61 +$3 (+5%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears 54¢ 57¢ $58 $60 +$3 (+5%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $57 $55 −$2 (-4%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 71¢ 72¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+2%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Game Master 37¢ 38¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Game Master 41¢ 40¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals No 88¢ 48¢ $88 $48 −$40 (-45%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? No 96¢ 96¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? No 93¢ 93¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Xaver Schlager: 1+ goals No 94¢ 92¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 87¢ 89¢ $44 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals No 90¢ 50¢ $67 $38 −$30 (-44%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 55¢ 32¢ $62 $37 −$25 (-41%)
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-22? No 62¢ 65¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 68¢ 54¢ $40 $32 −$9 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $28 −$2 -9%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $447 −$284 -64%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $89 +$62 +69%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$9 +54%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$7 +21%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $168 +$223 +133%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $268 +$36 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $32 −$8 -24%
Algeria to win the second half? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 −$9 -26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $160 +$10 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $181 −$159 -88%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $62 −$28 -45%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $208 −$203 -98%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $335 −$325 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $108 −$104 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Second half draw? Jun 17 $6 +$8 +131%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 +$2 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $23 +$13 +57%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $87 +$42 +48%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $28 +$35 +124%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals Jun 17 $45 +$5 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $141 +$12 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $52 +$26 +51%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $72 +$6 +9%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals Jun 17 $112 +$22 +19%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $164 +$38 +23%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $210 +$14 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $437 +$83 +19%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $729 +$36 +5%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $375 +$223 +59%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $621 +$75 +12%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $597 +$104 +18%
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina Jun 17 $150 +$4 +3%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $95 −$85 -90%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 17 $90 +$25 +28%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $347 +$15 +4%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 17 $52 +$16 +30%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $390 −$27 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $4 7m
Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals BUY No 90¢ $38 7m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 7m
Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals BUY No 90¢ $7 8m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $4 8m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $4 8m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 9m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $21 11m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 38¢ $10 11m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 38¢ $10 12m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 37¢ $10 12m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 41¢ $17 12m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 37¢ $7 13m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 37¢ $9 14m
Austria to win the second half? BUY No 41¢ $20 14m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 14m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 40¢ $4 15m
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $54 16m
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $15 18m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $7 18m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $7 18m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $28 19m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $28 19m
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $38 20m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $14 20m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $28 20m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $14 20m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $36 20m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $14 20m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $14 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,717.16 · official $2,623.25 · 3500 history records