Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67af…f6e5 crypto 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$361 (-10%) realized −$382 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate56%65W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$54
crypto 17% −$392
other 4% +$41
finance 1% −$28
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.3% +12.4% 100% 100% +12.4%
≤30d 2 +18.7% +7.4% 100% 100% +7.3%
≤90d 79 -24.7% -31.9% 58% 20% -19.1%
all 117 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 26% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 26% -18.0%
10% -32.3% 21% -25.8%
15% -38.8% 14% -33.0%
20% -44.8% 11% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses65 / 52
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)117 / 122
History coverage95d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 12¢ 36¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+200%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $153 +$37 +24%
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Canada May 24 $153 +$20 +13%
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Czechia May 23 $131 +$22 +17%
World Championships: Germany vs. Hungary May 22 $116 +$14 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 21? May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
World Championships: Denmark vs. Slovakia May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 20? May 21 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 20? May 20 $0 $0 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 20? May 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 17? May 17 $362 −$362 -100%
World Championships: Italy vs. Slovakia May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? May 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 12? May 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 12? May 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on May 6? May 07 $5 +$5 +93%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? May 06 $5 −$5 -94%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 05 $10 +$16 +163%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26? May 05 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 5? May 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 5? May 05 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 5? May 05 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 5? May 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $10 −$9 -94%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Russell? Apr 21 $10 −$2 -16%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Russell? Apr 21 $10 −$2 -15%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Russell? Apr 21 $10 −$1 -11%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri? Apr 21 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? Apr 21 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Droguet vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 21.5 Apr 04 $84 −$42 -50%
Ortenzi vs. Riera: Match O/U 21.5 Apr 04 $89 +$1 +1%
Ortenzi vs. Riera: Match O/U 22.5 Apr 04 $89 +$1 +1%
Callejon vs. Paulson: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Osorio vs. Ortenzi: Match O/U 23.5 Apr 03 $94 +$1 +1%
Osorio vs. Ortenzi: Match O/U 22.5 Apr 03 $94 +$1 +1%
Stearns vs. Kessler: Match O/U 21.5 Apr 03 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +2%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Apr 01 $10 +$8 +84%
Winegar vs. Alujas: Match O/U 21.5 Apr 01 $83 +$1 +1%
Basavareddy vs. Draxl: Match O/U 22.5 Apr 01 $84 +$1 +1%
Basavareddy vs. Draxl: Match O/U 23.5 Apr 01 $89 +$1 +1%
Kudermetova vs. Oliynykova: Match O/U 23.5 Apr 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Etcheverry vs. Gomez: Match O/U 21.5 Apr 01 $104 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $153 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 38¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12d
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Canada BUY Canada 88¢ $153 30d
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Czechia BUY Czechia 85¢ $131 31d
World Championships: Germany vs. Hungary BUY Germany 89¢ $116 32d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 21? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 33d
World Championships: Denmark vs. Slovakia BUY Denmark 37¢ $5 33d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 34d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 20? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 20? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 34d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 17? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 37d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 17? BUY Yes 89¢ $361 37d
World Championships: Italy vs. Slovakia BUY Italy 17¢ $10 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 40d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 42d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $7 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.86 · official $60.86 (match) · 210 history records