Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

67 0x67ad…246d crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,163 (-7%) realized −$1,162 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate92%22W / 2L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$624per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2,517now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$5

7 days+$6

14 days+$6

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-10.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+0.1%	-9.4%	89%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	9	+0.1%	-9.4%	89%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	9	+0.1%	-9.4%	89%	0%	-9.4%
all	24	-0.7%	-10.2%	92%	0%	-16.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.2%	0%	-16.9%
10%	-18.8%	0%	-24.8%
15%	-26.6%	0%	-32.1%
20%	-33.8%	0%	-38.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$745) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -2% → late +0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$590 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage

Net worth$2,517

Realized−$1,162

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)92%

Wins / losses22 / 2

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Open positions3

Markets (closed)24 / 27

History coverage616d

Avg bet$624

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$1,885	$1,882	−$3 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23?	No	99¢	100¢	$520	$522	+$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$113	$113	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22?	Jun 22	$245	+$3	+1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22?	Jun 22	$1,900	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22?	Jun 22	$369	$0	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18?	Jun 18	$1,500	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18?	Jun 18	$496	$0	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18?	Jun 18	$521	−$5	-1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	Jun 17	$858	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17?	Jun 17	$745	+$3	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17?	Jun 17	$909	+$1	+0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May?	Jun 04	$16	$0	+1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May?	Jun 04	$22	$0	+1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May?	Jun 04	$150	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?	Jun 04	$151	+$1	+0%
Dogecoin all time high in April?	May 14	$5	$0	+0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April?	May 14	$6	$0	+0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April?	May 14	$21	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April?	May 14	$35	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April?	May 14	$48	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April?	May 14	$59	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April?	May 14	$75	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April?	May 14	$89	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?	Apr 04	$541	+$1	+0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	Feb 03	$540	+$1	+0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Oct 28	$5,019	−$1,175	-23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?	BUY Yes	100¢	$785	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23?	BUY No	99¢	$520	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,100	1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23?	BUY Yes	100¢	$113	1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22?	BUY No	100¢	$369	25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22?	BUY Yes	99¢	$245	25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,900	25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18?	SELL Yes	98¢	$516	4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18?	BUY Yes	100¢	$496	4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,500	4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18?	BUY Yes	99¢	$521	4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17?	BUY Yes	100¢	$909	6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17?	BUY No	100¢	$745	6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY Yes	100¢	$858	6d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?	BUY No	100¢	$151	405d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$150	405d
Will Solana reach $300 in May?	BUY No	99¢	$22	405d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May?	BUY No	99¢	$16	405d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$35	433d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$47	433d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$28	433d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$59	433d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$6	433d
Dogecoin all time high in April?	BUY No	100¢	$5	433d
Will Solana reach $300 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$21	433d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April?	BUY No	100¢	$89	433d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April?	BUY No	100¢	$48	433d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?	BUY No	100¢	$97	460d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?	BUY No	100¢	$120	460d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?	BUY No	100¢	$81	460d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,517.26 · official $2,517.26 (match) · 63 history records