Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67ac…edf1 sports 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12,995 (+2%) realized +$7,621 · open +$5,374
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%129W / 101L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,094per market
Trades / day92.7pace
Fees−$9,405est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$16,506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$27,082
crypto 6% +$1,006
world 5% −$3,139
other 4% +$2,064
politics 0% −$236
tech 0% +$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -55.6% -59.8% 29% 22% -47.3%
≤30d 203 -17.9% -25.7% 56% 44% -14.3%
≤90d 230 -11.9% -20.3% 56% 45% -14.7%
all 230 -11.9% -20.3% 56% 45% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 45% -14.7%
10% -27.9% 36% -22.9%
15% ← realistic here -34.9% 27% -30.3%
20% -41.3% 21% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$5,707) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,027 vs −$3,256 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$16,506
Realized+$7,621
Unrealized+$5,374
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses129 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$9,405
Open positions8
Markets (closed)230 / 209
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$4,094
Trades / day92.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 49¢ 99¢ $2,895 $5,842 +$2,947 (+102%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 57¢ 100¢ $2,928 $5,134 +$2,206 (+75%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $2,652 $2,949 +$297 (+11%)
Will T1 win MSI 2026? No 73¢ 74¢ $1,441 $1,453 +$12 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 91¢ 90¢ $869 $863 −$7 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $259 $244 −$15 (-6%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? No 74¢ 84¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $4,034 −$4,034 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Jun 19 $7,855 −$7,855 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 19 $5,522 −$8,195 -148%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $555 −$555 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 19 $1,487 +$577 +39%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,609 −$1,609 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,719 −$2,719 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 19 $8,547 −$8,547 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,495 −$1,495 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 19 $6,759 −$11,049 -164%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,647 −$3,049 -185%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 19 $4,180 −$4,180 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 19 $3,073 −$3,073 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,465 −$2,465 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Jun 19 $2,821 −$2,821 -100%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play Jun 19 $1,074 −$1,771 -165%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Jun 19 $2 −$3,791 -172972%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 19 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $12,636 −$12,636 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $124 −$124 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $3,943 −$3,943 -100%
Will SV Elversberg achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesli Jun 19 $72 −$194 -269%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,688 −$2,688 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniel Altmaier vs Alexander Zverev Jun 19 $2,233 −$2,233 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 19 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,843 −$135 -7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $633 +$4 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $4,676 +$729 +16%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $4,506 +$421 +9%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $14,913 +$994 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5,044 +$3,394 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $7,094 +$681 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $9,630 +$6,223 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $6,726 −$5,478 -81%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,502 −$1,500 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,881 +$3,119 +108%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,643 −$3,600 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2,544 +$761 +30%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1,315 −$1,311 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9,480 −$9,480 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3,522 +$597 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $4,222 +$1,333 +32%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +135%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $20,338 +$8,446 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,840 −$1,260 -33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $361 +$108 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $3 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $98 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $1,552 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $1 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $52 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $1 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 96¢ $120 1m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 96¢ $625 1m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 96¢ $19 1m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $107 12m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 44¢ $1,843 23m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 57¢ $2,966 1h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2 5h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY No 73¢ $10 12h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY No 73¢ $88 12h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY No 73¢ $3 12h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY No 73¢ $485 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $882 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $12 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $13 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $7 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1,662 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $91 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $182 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1,727 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1,706 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $503 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $610 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 87¢ $2,256 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,505.56 · official $16,505.56 (match) · 3500 history records