Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67a9…e29e other 709 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$525 (-11%) realized −$524 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%189W / 504L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days−$189
14 days−$312
30 days−$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$418
other 35% −$193
crypto 22% −$3
world 3% −$67
politics 1% −$7
weather 0% −$6
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -30.4% -37.1% 18% 18% -21.4%
≤30d 319 -22.9% -30.2% 18% 18% -32.2%
≤90d 389 -22.2% -29.6% 18% 18% -32.7%
all 693 -15.4% -23.4% 27% 26% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 26% -23.3%
10% -30.7% 25% -30.7%
15% -37.4% 25% -37.4%
20% -43.6% 23% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$524
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses189 / 504
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions12
Markets (closed)693 / 709
History coverage218d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 693 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Over 29¢ 58¢ $12 $24 +$12 (+102%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 81¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 30¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-39%)
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 14¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 21¢ 9¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 398 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16 +$58 +352%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 +$19 +166%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $18 −$18 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $10 +$52 +510%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$20 +388%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $2 +$20 +980%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$65 +128%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $30 +$27 +90%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$4 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$29 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 92¢ $74 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $12 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 24¢ $6 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 4¢ $1 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $3 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 30¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.07 · official $104.43 · 1257 history records