Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67a9…7590 crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$812 (+17%) realized +$812 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate52%44W / 41L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days+$523
14 days+$23
30 days+$655
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$49
other 29% +$269
sports 29% +$424
politics 2% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +91.0% +72.8% 60% 60% +95.0%
≤30d 7 +74.3% +57.7% 57% 57% +34.9%
≤90d 85 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 28% +4.8%
all 85 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 28% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 28% +4.8%
10% -23.2% 13% -5.2%
15% -30.6% 11% -14.4%
20% -37.4% 9% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$25 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$812
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses44 / 41
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage70d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $102 +$185 +182%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$201 +197%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $516 −$500 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $382 +$632 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $102 −$33 -32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $405 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 14 $397 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 14 $308 +$89 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $135 +$173 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3PM ET Apr 13 $28 −$16 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 13 $27 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 13 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 13 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 13 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 13 $23 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 13 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 13 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 13 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 13 $14 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 13 $23 −$18 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12PM ET Apr 13 $29 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 13 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$10 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 13 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 13 $15 −$7 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 13 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 13 $15 +$15 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 13 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 13 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 13 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 13 $26 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $28 +$16 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 13 $24 +$4 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $47 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $174 3d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $102 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 37¢ $382 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $69 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 68¢ $217 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 61¢ $204 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $400 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $397 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $397 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $308 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $308 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $135 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $14 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $29 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 835 history records