Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x67a3…2b91
weather · 365 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$123 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$396 · open −$273
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$396
Unrealized−$273
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses228 / 135
Open positions2
Markets (closed)363 / 365
History coverage50d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 363 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$329
14 days+$156
30 days+$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? No 92¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $222 $0 −$222 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 5? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 4? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 4? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 2? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 6? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 8? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 7? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 8? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 2? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 6? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 5? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 3? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 6? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 8? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 5? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 8? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $113 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 +$21 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $154 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $163 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $72 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $102 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $91 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $198 +$24 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $44 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $390 +$35 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $173 +$19 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $228 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $325 +$30 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $148 +$32 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $80 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 08 $61 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $87 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $208 +$27 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $99 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $102 +$21 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $141 +$23 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $101 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 05 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $81 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $179 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $219 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $128 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $194 +$21 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 04 $153 −$150 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 04 $206 −$205 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $81 +$35 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $301 −$32 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $134 −$132 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $60 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $39 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $80 +$44 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $128 +$16 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $283 +$19 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $147 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $39 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 50m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 67¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 58m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 90¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $90 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $36 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $67 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $64 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $63 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $60 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $49 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $174 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $58 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +8.2% -2.1% 100% 24% -1.0%
≤30d 126 +4.9% -5.1% 95% 27% -7.2%
≤90d 363 +4.2% -5.7% 63% 35% -7.2%
all 363 +4.2% -5.7% 63% 35% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 35% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 27% -16.1%
15% -23.0% 23% -24.2%
20% -30.5% 21% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.41 (match) · 1476 history records