Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
67 0x6797…e0e5 sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$816 (-6%) realized −$813 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%58W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$101
14 days−$344
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$797
other 32% −$132
crypto 0% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -3.9% -13.1% 58% 58% -8.2%
≤30d 95 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 54% -12.5%
≤90d 110 -12.3% -20.7% 53% 52% -15.5%
all 110 -12.3% -20.7% 53% 52% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 52% -15.5%
10% -28.2% 51% -23.6%
15% -35.2% 40% -31.0%
20% -41.5% 25% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$98 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$813
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses58 / 52
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage35d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 58¢ 57¢ $190 $187 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $430 +$102 +24%
Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs Nakashima Jun 19 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$222 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $232 +$70 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $127 +$104 +82%
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert Jun 18 $101 +$124 +123%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $338 +$175 +52%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 18 $172 +$69 +40%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $199 +$71 +36%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $133 −$132 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $261 +$71 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $350 −$89 -26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$51 -50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $166 −$165 -99%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $131 +$37 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $212 +$121 +57%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $194 +$120 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $182 +$108 +59%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $298 +$87 +29%
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Fokina Jun 16 $146 −$144 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $91 +$53 +58%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $91 +$92 +101%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $91 +$104 +114%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $196 −$195 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $145 −$143 -98%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$45 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $95 −$94 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $68 −$67 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $295 −$95 -32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $176 −$174 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $97 +$131 +135%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$46 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $274 −$75 -28%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Minaur Jun 13 $101 +$71 +70%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $99 +$45 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $144 +$59 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $148 −$146 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$46 +45%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $89 −$88 -99%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $117 +$27 +23%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $66 +$52 +79%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $99 +$67 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $162 −$160 -99%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $146 +$115 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $128 −$127 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 58¢ $192 37m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $399 44m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 50¢ $203 56m
Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs Nakashima BUY Minaur 61¢ $132 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 40¢ $134 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 66¢ $227 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $425 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $302 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $232 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $231 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $127 17h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert SELL Humbert 100¢ $225 17h
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert BUY Humbert 44¢ $101 17h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $109 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $513 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $338 21h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) SELL Zverev 100¢ $241 21h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Zverev 71¢ $172 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $269 23h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 73¢ $199 24h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 69¢ $133 24h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) SELL Fritz 100¢ $332 26h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Fritz 78¢ $261 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $261 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $350 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $51 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $102 41h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 45¢ $102 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.69 · official $191.64 · 191 history records