Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6796…3578 sports 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,113 (-7%) realized −$1,113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate76%203W / 63L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$9
14 days−$36
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$1,616
other 25% +$535
crypto 3% −$133
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +1.8% -7.9% 72% 33% -8.0%
≤30d 157 -4.5% -13.6% 73% 20% -17.7%
≤90d 266 -3.8% -13.0% 76% 23% -16.4%
all 266 -3.8% -13.0% 76% 23% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 23% -16.4%
10% -21.3% 12% -24.4%
15% -28.9% 5% -31.7%
20% -35.9% 3% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$51 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses203 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage67d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$1 -15%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$10 -19%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$3 -58%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $49 −$17 -34%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $40 +$10 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $6 −$2 -32%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 +$4 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$2 -36%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $15 +$2 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $11 −$4 -40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -21%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -19%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 49m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 96¢ $50 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $50 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 58¢ $3 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $1 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 69¢ $4 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $5 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $40 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $2 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 46¢ $32 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $40 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $20 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $24 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 563 history records