Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6795…9fe0 crypto 28 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$54 (-10%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day107.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 43% -30.7%
≤30d 28 -6.4% -15.3% 61% 54% -21.1%
≤90d 28 -6.4% -15.3% 61% 54% -21.1%
all 28 -6.4% -15.3% 61% 54% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 54% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 46% -28.6%
15% -30.8% 18% -35.5%
20% -37.6% 11% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day107.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $112 −$57 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $102 −$32 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $18 +$14 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $22 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $91 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records