Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6794…aa50 crypto 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$386 (-24%) realized −$378 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%66W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$16
14 days+$34
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$84
crypto 40% −$169
other 17% −$104
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +4.3% -5.6% 73% 50% -5.6%
≤30d 92 -17.4% -25.3% 60% 38% -31.6%
≤90d 131 -23.5% -30.7% 50% 34% -32.0%
all 131 -23.5% -30.7% 50% 34% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 34% -32.0%
10% -37.4% 24% -38.5%
15% -43.4% 20% -44.4%
20% -49.0% 13% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$378
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses66 / 65
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 135
History coverage34d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 27¢ $25 $16 −$8 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$28 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-0 Jun 16 $22 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $50 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $35 +$20 +58%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $23 +$12 +50%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Jun 14 $16 +$7 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +162%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 +$8 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $190 −$108 -57%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $145 +$45 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 02 $17 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 02 $14 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 31 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 31 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 42¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 45¢ $2 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17 BUY 20¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 50¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.15 · official $50.14 · 295 history records