Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6793…1869 weather 1115 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,192 (-14%) realized −$2,177 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate52%564W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$88
14 days+$66
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% −$216
sports 44% −$1,961
culture 1% −$15
crypto 1% −$54
other 1% −$7
politics 0% −$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +16.9% +5.8% 72% 45% -3.2%
≤30d 205 +23.0% +11.3% 59% 32% -5.5%
≤90d 985 -11.4% -19.8% 55% 22% -15.7%
all 1075 -13.3% -21.6% 52% 22% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 22% -23.5%
10% -29.1% 19% -30.9%
15% -35.9% 15% -37.5%
20% -42.2% 12% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized−$2,177
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses564 / 511
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions40
Markets (closed)1075 / 1115
History coverage121d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 1075 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 90¢ $89 $90 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 26¢ 52¢ $26 $52 +$26 (+100%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Yes 81¢ 94¢ $20 $24 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? No 82¢ 96¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+16%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 56¢ 16¢ $56 $16 −$40 (-72%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 20? No 57¢ 58¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? No 70¢ 62¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 80¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? No 53¢ 58¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 76¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? No 65¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Yes 34¢ 37¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? No 64¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 20? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Under 90¢ 71¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? Jun 19 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $22 +$1 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $11 +$4 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$14 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $52 +$23 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$91 +1010%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $11 +$4 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $24 +$1 +6%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $8 +$7 +93%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $13 +$2 +18%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$17 +212%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 $0 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $1 +$9 +733%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $6 +$4 +69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $16 +$8 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +66%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$4 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 +$2 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $14 +$1 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $29 +$21 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $20 +$30 +155%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 37¢ $6 3h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 29¢ $15 3h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 37¢ $13 3h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th BUY Yes 17¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 57¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 90¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.48 · official $464.48 (match) · 2946 history records