Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
67 0x6790…63ce other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$272 (+32%) realized +$273 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days+$301
14 days+$270
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$154
sports 40% +$115
politics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +62.1% +46.7% 73% 73% +35.9%
≤30d 21 +25.3% +13.4% 57% 57% +23.9%
≤90d 22 +19.7% +8.3% 55% 55% +22.2%
all 22 +19.7% +8.3% 55% 55% +22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 55% +22.2%
10% -2.1% 50% +10.5%
15% -11.5% 50% -0.2%
20% -20.2% 36% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$12 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$273
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage72d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 62¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $112 +$156 +140%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $110 +$47 +43%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $75 +$35 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $94 +$17 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $35 +$21 +59%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$8 -40%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $40 −$2 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$17 +56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$12 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 −$37 -68%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $12 +$43 +365%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$22 -67%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $7 +$7 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $7 +$7 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +43%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 27 $11 −$11 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $114 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $112 16h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL No 76¢ $157 41h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $110 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $54 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $75 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $75 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $57 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $56 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $35 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $12 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $6 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $7 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $14 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $15 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $17 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $17 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $47 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $54 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $12 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 9d
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri SELL Yes $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.10 · official $112.10 (match) · 49 history records