Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x678b…d58c crypto 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%56W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$9
sports 2% −$10
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +2.7% -7.1% 54% 51% -9.5%
≤30d 108 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 49% -10.7%
≤90d 108 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 49% -10.7%
all 108 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 49% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 49% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 47% -19.3%
15% -27.0% 37% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 32% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses56 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage11d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$17 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$14 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$10 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$11 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$3 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records