Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:26:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x678a…05ff sports 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-3%) realized −$63 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%66W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$25
14 days+$22
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$119
politics 34% −$137
other 14% −$29
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.0% -12.2% 57% 52% -2.4%
≤30d 93 +3.3% -6.5% 56% 53% -5.0%
≤90d 121 +1.6% -8.1% 55% 51% -12.0%
all 121 +1.6% -8.1% 55% 51% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 51% -12.0%
10% -16.9% 45% -20.4%
15% -24.9% 40% -28.1%
20% -32.3% 36% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses66 / 55
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)121 / 129
History coverage173d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 60¢ 56¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-16%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $10 +$6 +56%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $20 −$7 -36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$7 -45%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $11 +$7 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$18 +108%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $7 +$1 +20%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $21 +$13 +60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$15 -48%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $27 +$15 +56%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $15 +$8 +56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $15 −$1 -7%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $17 +$15 +90%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $12 $0 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $13 +$10 +75%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $10 −$1 -10%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $10 +$7 +67%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $10 +$8 +74%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $26 −$14 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 07 $10 $0 -3%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $10 +$10 +103%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $10 +$3 +35%
Birmingham: Harry Wendelken vs Mark Lajal Jun 04 $15 +$4 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $8 +$5 +57%
Tyler: Braden Shick vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 04 $14 +$4 +31%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $11 −$11 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $10 −$5 -45%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $12 −$12 -99%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $12 −$12 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 58¢ $12 0m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $10 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 93¢ $30 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 62¢ $20 3h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 84¢ $16 15h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 53¢ $10 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 38¢ $16 20h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 69¢ $10 21h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 68¢ $13 22h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 53¢ $10 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $8 37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $15 38h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $8 39h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 39h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 86¢ $18 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 47h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 52¢ $11 2d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 98¢ $33 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 41¢ $21 2d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 41¢ $21 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL 50¢ $21 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 47¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 2d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $12 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 19¢ $4 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.44 · official $136.30 · 250 history records