Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
67 0x6787…ff88 sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,072 (-7%) realized −$1,072 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%31W / 41L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days−$102
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$652
other 21% −$269
politics 8% +$56
crypto 2% −$266
tech 1% −$64
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 40% -12.4%
≤30d 15 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 40% -12.4%
≤90d 15 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 40% -12.4%
all 72 -13.9% -22.1% 43% 31% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 31% -16.6%
10% -29.5% 29% -24.6%
15% -36.4% 24% -31.9%
20% -42.6% 19% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$82 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,072
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses31 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage147d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $670 −$368 -55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $103 +$97 +95%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 +$119 +119%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $67 −$66 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$56 +112%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $66 +$21 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $78 −$50 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $55 +$127 +229%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $715 +$51 +7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $374 +$443 +119%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $270 −$266 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $386 −$5 -1%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 30 $578 −$578 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Game Master (BO1) - ESL Challenger China Playof Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 30 $406 +$83 +20%
Kings vs. 76ers Jan 30 $36 +$64 +178%
Rockets vs. Hawks Jan 30 $36 −$31 -86%
Bucks vs. Wizards Jan 30 $6 +$6 +100%
KRC Genk vs. Malmö FF: O/U 3.5 Jan 30 $200 +$272 +136%
Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5 Jan 29 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 29 $160 −$50 -31%
FC Porto vs. Rangers FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 29 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Deacoy (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Jan 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 29 $1,295 +$57 +4%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Jan 29 $94 −$64 -68%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jan 29 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP R Jan 29 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 4.5 Jan 28 $291 +$385 +132%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 28 $1,034 −$526 -51%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 28 $776 +$41 +5%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 28 $70 +$34 +48%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 28 $11 +$16 +144%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $24 −$1 -4%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 28 $40 +$24 +59%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 28 $265 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 27 $16 −$7 -44%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $81 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 26 $92 −$65 -70%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 26 $95 −$8 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 26 $92 −$72 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 26 $96 −$95 -99%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 25 $603 −$24 -4%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $40 +$15 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 27¢ $26 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 31¢ $276 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $120 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $50 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $5 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $2 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $23 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $502 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $54 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $105 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $9 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $103 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $101 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $67 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 17¢ $1 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 17¢ $5 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 17¢ $101 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $17 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $9 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $16 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $8 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Under $27 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $52 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $22 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $2 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $2 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $28 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $3 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $13 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 406 history records