trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $800 | $750 | −$50 (-6%) |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $700 | $650 | −$50 (-7%) |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $107 | $115 | +$8 (+7%) |
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $69 | $73 | +$4 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $1,332 | +$1,033 | +78% |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $1,800 | +$200 | +11% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $1,991 | −$1,991 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | May 06 | $200 | −$14 | -7% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? | May 04 | $2 | $0 | -6% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +44.3% | +30.6% | 100% | 100% | +26.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -3.8% | -12.9% | 67% | 67% | -22.9% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -4.9% | -13.9% | 40% | 40% | -22.7% |
| all | 5 | -4.9% | -13.9% | 40% | 40% | -22.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -13.9% | 40% | -22.7% |
| 10% | -22.2% | 20% | -30.1% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -29.7% | 20% | -36.8% |
| 20% | -36.6% | 20% | -43.0% |