Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
67 0x6786…c034 crypto 463 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$626 (-0%) realized −$627 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%435W / 27L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$707per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$93
30 days−$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$212
weather 10% −$788
politics 1% −$79
other 0% +$1
culture 0% −$14
world 0% −$2
sports 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 76 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 279 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.6%
all 462 -1.5% -10.9% 94% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$1,014) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$70 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$627
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses435 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)462 / 463
History coverage252d
Avg bet$707
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 462 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $299 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $194 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $297 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $298 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $297 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $458 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $296 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $296 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $295 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $295 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $293 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $488 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,593 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2,067 +$8 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $2,070 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $2,066 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,964 +$58 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $330 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $761 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $916 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $2,000 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,999 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $1,790 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $451 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $1,338 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,429 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $1,109 −$679 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 1? May 31 $153 −$31 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 31 $597 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on May 29? May 30 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C or below on May 29? May 30 $245 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 29? May 30 $270 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $2,004 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 26? May 27 $2,679 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $313 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $2,361 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 25? May 26 $971 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $175 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $99 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $299 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $299 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $194 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $104 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $299 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $297 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $298 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $297 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $136 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $297 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $297 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $296 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $296 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $296 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $295 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $295 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $293 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,470 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $488 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $5 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $5 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $113 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,067 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $2,070 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.05 · official $301.05 (match) · 1124 history records