Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6786…f316 other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%10W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$32
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$28
other 26% −$21
sports 18% −$14
crypto 9% −$19
economics 8% −$3
culture 4% −$2
world 3% −$5
finance 2% −$8
tech 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 76 -0.8% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 154 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -10.0%
all 164 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses10 / 154
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage100d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $103 −$3 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $150 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $122 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $57 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $238 −$2 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $57 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $225 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $62 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $369 −$3 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $65 −$4 -5%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $59 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $245 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 04 $57 −$1 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $41 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $63 −$2 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 02 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $150 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $99 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $368 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $38 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $403 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 32m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 45m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $57 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $57 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $53 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $53 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $49 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $50 17h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $58 18h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $59 25h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $55 25h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $55 30h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $53 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $54 36h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $61 37h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $61 45h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $56 45h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $28 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $52 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $54 3d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.16 · official $57.08 (match) · 705 history records