Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6785…98c3 sports 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,916 (-21%) realized −$2,505 · open −$411
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%23W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$634
7 days−$1,110
14 days−$1,110
30 days−$1,110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$2,995
other 27% −$30
crypto 2% −$331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.2% -17.9% 25% 25% -41.2%
≤30d 32 -9.2% -17.9% 25% 25% -41.2%
≤90d 74 -2.6% -11.8% 31% 31% -30.5%
all 74 -2.6% -11.8% 31% 31% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 31% -30.5%
10% -20.3% 31% -37.2%
15% -28.0% 30% -43.2%
20% -35.0% 30% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$171 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized−$2,505
Unrealized−$411
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses23 / 51
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions9
Markets (closed)74 / 86
History coverage56d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 54¢ 20¢ $211 $76 −$135 (-64%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $31 $19 −$12 (-39%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 4¢ $200 $19 −$181 (-91%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 65¢ 80¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+22%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-78%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $33 +$178 +543%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 +$139 +135%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $103 +$93 +90%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $113 +$103 +91%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $209 +$261 +125%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $103 −$101 -98%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $135 −$132 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$101 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $419 −$411 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $74 −$72 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $175 −$172 -98%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $205 +$114 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$24 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $166 −$163 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $52 +$144 +276%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $112 +$117 +105%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $73 −$71 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $286 −$281 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $111 −$108 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
US Avellino 1912 vs. SSC Bari: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $274 −$269 -98%
SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $354 −$345 -97%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) Apr 24 $354 −$345 -97%
RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $377 +$428 +114%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $293 −$286 -98%
Will Montpellier HSC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $177 −$173 -98%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5 Apr 24 $92 +$219 +237%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $330 +$382 +116%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $77 −$75 -98%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $77 −$75 -97%
Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $442 −$434 -98%
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. ZED FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $154 +$155 +101%
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. ZED FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $177 +$268 +151%
Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $177 −$175 -99%
FC Hermannstadt vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $354 −$348 -98%
FC Hermannstadt vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $354 −$347 -98%
FC Hermannstadt vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $177 −$174 -98%
Will SK Poltava win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 5m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $214 15m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY 25¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 78¢ $238 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 93¢ $195 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $215 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $113 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 48¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 44¢ $137 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 34¢ $64 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 34¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 34¢ $27 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 32¢ $177 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 34¢ $103 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.69 · official $356.45 · 171 history records