Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6781…1f96 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$15
sports 33% +$15
other 24% +$13
weather 2% +$1
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 28 -3.4% -12.6% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 35 -2.3% -11.6% 31% 0% -9.7%
all 50 -1.4% -10.8% 42% 8% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 8% -8.6%
10% -19.4% 6% -17.4%
15% -27.2% 4% -25.4%
20% -34.3% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage531d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 76¢ 76¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $123 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $34 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $24 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $67 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $32 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $95 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $69 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $65 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $47 −$11 -24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $42 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $223 −$2 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $507 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? Apr 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 23 $41 $0 +1%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 21 $41 $0 -0%
Northern Colorado vs. Weber State Mar 03 $27 +$6 +22%
Temple vs. Tulsa Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
SE Louisiana vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win on 2025-02-15? Mar 03 $21 +$14 +67%
St. Francis (PA) vs. Stonehill Feb 14 $13 +$8 +64%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 12? Feb 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $28 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $31 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $23 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $23 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 41h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $28 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $28 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.93 · official $27.93 (match) · 190 history records