Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x677b…1af3 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+6%) realized +$63 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$11
crypto 40% +$12
sports 5% +$65
finance 5% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +27.5% +15.4% 71% 71% +12.4%
≤30d 7 +27.5% +15.4% 71% 71% +12.4%
≤90d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 56% 56% +8.4%
all 44 +3.0% -6.8% 43% 36% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 36% -1.5%
10% -15.7% 34% -10.9%
15% -23.9% 34% -19.5%
20% -31.3% 25% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage161d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $77 $76 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $68 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$13 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$7 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$19 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$64 +250%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -93%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 14? Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 9? Jan 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 09 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 09 $23 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 09 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 09 $6 +$14 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 09 $25 −$15 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 08 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 08 $17 −$17 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 8? Jan 08 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 08 $35 +$49 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 08 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 08 $16 +$18 +110%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 08 $8 +$61 +799%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 08 $6 +$14 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 08 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 08 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 07 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 07 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3PM ET Jan 07 $9 +$10 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 07 $6 −$6 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7? Jan 07 $4 −$1 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $69 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 43h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $33 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $35 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 44d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 14? BUY Up 5¢ $2 153d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 9? BUY Down 1¢ $1 158d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 9? BUY Down 20¢ $4 158d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 9? BUY Down 44¢ $9 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $7 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $0 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.60 · official $332.60 (match) · 188 history records