Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x677a…403a politics 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%4W / 64L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$16
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 68 -0.5% -10.0% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage635d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $48 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi Feb 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Pascal Affi N'Guessan win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential elect Nov 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Rachel Lord announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Lunchly recall in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
GPT-5 not announced in 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Warren Davidson be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 21 $0 $0 -4%
2024 November hottest on record? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
US bank failure before December? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will another team win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jake Paul fight Andrew Tate next? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Justin Jefferson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will michi be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Mike Gallagher for Defense Secretary? Nov 11 $0 $0 -3%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 11 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 13h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $58 18d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $58 27d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $58 27d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 42d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 42d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 49d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 50d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $59 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $59 70d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 86d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 87d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 100d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 100d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 101d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 102d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 104d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 104d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 104d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $59 107d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $59 108d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $59 116d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $14 117d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $44 117d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 121d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records