Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6779…a815 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$8
other 21% +$1
politics 13% −$1
crypto 5% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 0% -11.4%
all 48 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -10.5%
10% -19.3% 2% -19.0%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage425d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $96 −$11 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $39 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $1 $0 -36%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 28 $13 +$1 +6%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $2 $0 -24%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 15 $6 $0 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 12 $21 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 10? Jun 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $16 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 10 $8 −$5 -53%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 28 $5 $0 -1%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 27 $4 $0 -3%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 25 $2 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? Apr 22 $19 $0 +1%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Rui Rocha be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 e Apr 21 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $22 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $22 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $5 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $16 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $21 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $33 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $16 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $34 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $34 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $15 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $15 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $30 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $29 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $41 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $39 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $36 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.42 · official $25.57 (match) · 143 history records