Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x6775…17ef sports 178 markets active 11h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,293 (+1%) realized +$3,293 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%81W / 97L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,868per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$384
7 days−$384
14 days−$1,652
30 days−$1,652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$13,398
other 38% −$700
world 3% −$7,338
crypto 1% −$2,619
finance 0% −$42
politics 0% −$214
tech 0% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 4 -7.2% -16.0% 25% 0% -15.8%
≤90d 4 -7.2% -16.0% 25% 0% -15.8%
all 178 -5.9% -14.9% 46% 39% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 39% -8.8%
10% -23.0% 34% -17.6%
15% -30.5% 29% -25.5%
20% -37.3% 26% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$744 vs −$598 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses81 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage368d
Avg bet$1,868
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6,638 +$361 +5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $7,480 −$746 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6,611 −$972 -15%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,083 −$295 -10%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 24 $7,994 +$62 +1%
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? Dec 20 $30,085 +$8,978 +30%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 19 $30,000 +$85 +0%
Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $20 +$31 +156%
Will Michael Morales win by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $50 +$125 +250%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Nov 16 $100 +$122 +122%
Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $1,250 +$1,581 +126%
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $3,000 +$1,767 +59%
UFC 322: Cortez vs. Blanchfield (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Nov 16 $1,000 +$408 +41%
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16? Nov 16 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-11-18? Nov 16 $70 $0 +0%
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $1,000 −$58 -6%
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) Nov 16 $200 −$15 -8%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $300 −$64 -21%
Will Roman Kopylov win by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $70 −$24 -34%
UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $1,000 +$9 +1%
UFC 322: Haddon vs. Wellmaker (Bantamweight, Prelims) Nov 16 $5,558 −$109 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15? Nov 16 $500 −$31 -6%
Will Baisangur Susurkaev win by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $200 +$43 +22%
UFC 322: Hill vs. Kline (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims) Nov 16 $4,000 +$814 +20%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs paiN (BO3) Nov 14 $8,060 −$8,060 -100%
Will Canada win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 14 $8,221 −$111 -1%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Nov 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Fatima Kline win by KO or TKO? Nov 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 13 $8,704 −$6,905 -79%
Lakers vs. Thunder Nov 13 $1,000 −$409 -41%
Will Suriname win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $200 −$29 -15%
Will Thailand win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $430 −$34 -8%
Will Gabon win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $100 −$12 -12%
Will Curaçao win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $520 −$60 -12%
Magic vs. Knicks Nov 13 $3,997 −$1,256 -31%
Will England win on 2025-11-16? Nov 12 $50 −$5 -9%
Will Honduras win on 2025-11-13? Nov 12 $200 −$3 -2%
Will Poland win on 2025-11-17? Nov 12 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? Nov 12 $3,557 −$3,557 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner Nov 12 $300 −$239 -80%
Will Cambodia win on 2025-11-13? Nov 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) Nov 12 $7,000 −$2,552 -36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Nov 12 $1,336 −$1,336 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Nov 12 $2,000 +$1,275 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Nov 12 $2,500 +$747 +30%
Nuggets vs. Kings Nov 12 $4,996 +$1,497 +30%
Grizzlies vs. Knicks Nov 12 $29,973 +$7,503 +25%
Spurs vs. Bulls Nov 11 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Lakers vs. Hornets Nov 11 $6,990 +$2,114 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $6,592 11h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5,122 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3,743 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,787 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $279 19d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,083 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $717 26d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 26d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $636 26d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 26d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $349 27d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3,075 27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4,842 27d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5,133 27d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $599 35d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $510 35d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $675 35d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $489 35d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $203 36d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 36d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 36d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 36d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 37d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 37d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $503 42d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $249 42d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $249 42d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $407 42d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $235 43d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $233 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 536 history records