Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x6770…45fb other 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$41,276 (+7%) realized +$46,338 · open −$5,062
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate72%184W / 73L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$2,060per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$43,118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$4,768
world 27% +$5,732
other 24% +$16,582
crypto 11% +$1,593
sports 0% −$227
economics 0% +$81
tech 0% −$209
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +15.2% +4.3% 63% 43% +1.2%
≤30d 52 +44.6% +30.8% 63% 42% -3.8%
≤90d 257 +25.3% +13.3% 72% 33% -4.9%
all 257 +25.3% +13.3% 72% 33% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.3% 33% -4.9%
10% +2.5% 23% -14.0%
15% ← realistic here -7.4% 17% -22.3%
20% -16.5% 12% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$672) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$129 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$43,118
Realized+$46,338
Unrealized−$5,062
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses184 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions11
Markets (closed)257 / 268
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$2,060
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $10,000 $16,690 +$6,690 (+67%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $5,730 $6,164 +$434 (+8%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $5,870 $5,924 +$54 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 35¢ 44¢ $4,400 $5,581 +$1,181 (+27%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $4,092 $4,172 +$80 (+2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $10,000 $3,310 −$6,690 (-67%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 71¢ 78¢ $754 $836 +$82 (+11%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 70¢ $172 $193 +$21 (+12%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $148 $148 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $279 $70 −$209 (-75%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+70%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $34 $11 −$22 (-66%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $57 +$18 +32%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $54 +$6 +11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $742 +$17 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $132 +$126 +96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,087 +$694 +64%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $176 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $5,063 +$888 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $585 +$664 +114%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4,832 +$1,382 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5,939 −$313 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $440 −$325 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $4,695 −$725 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $811 −$185 -23%
Will Olympiacos Piraeus win Greek Basketball League? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +186%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $269 +$829 +308%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $445 +$131 +29%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 13 $201 +$13 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $551 −$237 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $469 +$6 +1%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $534 +$8 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $269 −$220 -82%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $4,863 +$47 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $550 −$250 -45%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $185 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 11 $195 +$40 +20%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 11 $480 +$20 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $536 +$234 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $117 +$19 +16%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $158 −$154 -98%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $145 −$11 -8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $439 −$64 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,342 +$392 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $146 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $3,981 +$836 +21%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,496 +$53 +4%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10,377 +$234 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $50 −$10 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $151 +$21 +14%
Will Trump say "Percent" 13+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $777 +$216 +28%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 07 $20 +$8,460 +42445%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 06 $259 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $108 −$105 -97%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? Jun 04 $18 +$12 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 04 $283 +$240 +85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $59,929 +$1,616 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $347 −$258 -74%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $1,520 +$40 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,900 −$170 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 0¢ $2 11h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $4 12h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 0¢ $4 12h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 12h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,915 12h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 0¢ $5 12h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $75 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $74 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $18 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $16 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $13 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $16 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $13 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $13 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $13 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $13 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,117.73 · official $43,117.73 (match) · 3500 history records