Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
67 0x6770…c3bd sports 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,558 (-21%) realized −$10,799 · open −$1,759
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%60W / 422L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Fees−$650est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$5,661
other 9% −$1,369
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-54.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 426 -66.1% -69.3% 9% 7% -91.9%
≤30d 426 -66.1% -69.3% 9% 7% -91.9%
≤90d 482 -49.1% -54.0% 12% 10% -76.8%
all 482 -49.1% -54.0% 12% 10% -76.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.0% 10% -76.8%
10% ← realistic here -58.4% 7% -79.0%
15% -62.4% 7% -81.0%
20% -66.1% 5% -82.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$167 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$4,995
Realized−$10,799
Unrealized−$1,759
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses60 / 422
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$650
Open positions41
Markets (closed)482 / 208
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$293
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Team Bald 54¢ 50¢ $991 $922 −$69 (-7%)
ITF Claremont: Oliver Ojakaar vs Jagger Leach Jagger Leach 39¢ 88¢ $77 $173 +$96 (+125%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $139 $134 −$5 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C DFX Peek 24¢ 29¢ $56 $69 +$13 (+23%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies 72¢ 62¢ $79 $68 −$12 (-15%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 79¢ 79¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner Pigeons 42¢ 46¢ $39 $43 +$3 (+9%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 65¢ 54¢ $48 $40 −$8 (-17%)
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 44¢ 15¢ $110 $38 −$72 (-66%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 60¢ 74¢ $30 $37 +$6 (+21%)
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner Division One 67¢ 54¢ $41 $33 −$8 (-19%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 50¢ 50¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ 26¢ $70 $28 −$42 (-59%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 53¢ 55¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 48¢ 74¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+54%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets New York Mets 62¢ 38¢ $31 $19 −$12 (-38%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 54¢ 60¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+12%)
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto Ana Candiotto 17¢ 85¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+400%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ 21¢ $31 $12 −$19 (-62%)
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 68¢ 60¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-12%)
ITF Claremont: Oliver Ojakaar vs Jagger Leach Oliver Ojakaar 68¢ 12¢ $53 $9 −$43 (-82%)
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 75¢ 71¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Pigeons 33¢ 40¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 435 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 26 $1,372 −$2,745 -200%
Tallahassee: Daniil Glinka vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 26 $31 −$21 -69%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 26 $1,183 −$1,183 -100%
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs ZYB Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs INTZ (BO3) - South America League Kickoff Pl Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 26 $37 −$74 -201%
Sarasota: Hugo Dellien vs Darwin Blanch Jun 26 $227 −$198 -87%
Credit One Charleston Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Dalma Galfi Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Pharco FC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 26 $5 −$10 -200%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-04-05? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Bebop (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 P Jun 26 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 26 $271 −$271 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 26 $7 +$132 +1898%
Will Haras El Hodood SC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Alianza FC vs. AD Pasto end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 26 $309 −$309 -100%
Wild vs. Predators Jun 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - United21 Pla Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 26 $2,415 −$2,903 -120%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-11? Jun 26 $50 −$100 -200%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Madrid: Polina Kudermetova vs Lisa Pigato Jun 26 $116 −$93 -80%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 26 $195 −$390 -200%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-13? Jun 26 $6 −$13 -203%
Will Haiti vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 26 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 26 $100 −$183 -182%
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 26 $2,351 −$2,388 -102%
Sarasota: Andres Andrade vs Tyler Zink Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Barcelona Open: Reilly Opelka vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Xinyu Wang vs Harmony Jun 26 $20 −$14 -71%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Ch Jun 26 $34 −$42 -124%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $386 −$386 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 26 $389 −$430 -111%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP R Jun 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Alina Charaeva vs Jes Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 26 $96 −$1 -2%
Busan: Renta Tokuda vs Coleman Wong Jun 26 $26 +$48 +184%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Madrid: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 26 $152 −$152 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner BUY Pigeons 36¢ $3 0m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner BUY Pigeons 39¢ $7 1m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 62¢ $31 1m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $31 1m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner BUY Division One 59¢ $7 1m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 67¢ $7 2m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 67¢ $3 2m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 63¢ $3 2m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 74¢ $4 2m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 63¢ $32 2m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner BUY Pigeons 50¢ $13 2m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 80¢ $39 2m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 78¢ $23 2m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner BUY Pigeons 51¢ $6 2m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner BUY Pigeons 38¢ $6 3m
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 12¢ $6 6m
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 12¢ $6 6m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner BUY Pigeons 39¢ $2 6m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 22¢ $2 6m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G BUY Division One 68¢ $13 7m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 22¢ $2 7m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 22¢ $4 7m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner BUY Pigeons 33¢ $3 8m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 22¢ $11 8m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G BUY Pigeons 33¢ $4 8m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 22¢ $2 8m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 22¢ $1 9m
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 22¢ $10 9m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner BUY Division One 70¢ $26 10m
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner BUY Division One 63¢ $9 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,995.35 · official $4,971.38 (match) · 3500 history records